Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Do The Math: Three Scenarios

Do the math, given these results (more or less):

1. To get the president's mandate to form the next government, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has fewer seats than Tzipi Livni, will need to lock-down a majority of Knesset members, which means a coalition of

Likud+Lieberman+Shas+various ultraOrthodox and ultraNationlist parties.  

This he can almost certainly do, and, given his victory speech, intends to, although Lieberman and Shas despise one another. And Netanyahu will find himself in Obama's Washington and the mainstream media about as popular as Rush Limbaugh.

2. For Tzipi Livni to get to a majority, she would need:

Kadima+Labor+Shas (or Lieberman)+Meretz (or Arab parties).

Shas (or Lieberman)+Meterz+Arab parties? Forget it.

3. Netanyahu or Livni or both could work toward a "national unity" government: 

Kadima+Likud+Labor (or Lieberman, or Shas).  

Netanyahu would (in one version) have to concede the prime minister's chair, as the major party with fewer seats--which he would be utterly opposed to, since he could form a rightist government of his own.  

Or Livni would (in a second version) concede the prime minister's chair and lose the chance to anchor a fighting opposition, with Labor in opposition, and Netanyahu busy alienating the world.

There is talk of a rotation agreement, as in 1984.

MY BET IS that Netanyahu will form a rightist government, take his chances with Washington, the collapse of relations with the PA, and riots among Israeli Arabs. 

Brace yourselves.  


Y. Ben-David said...

Dr Avishai gives us the same "doom and gloom" predictions about the Right winning that we have been hearing for decades. Almost ALL wars and violence have occurred when the LEFT is in power. The outgoing gov't is LEFT and it gave Israel TWO WARS IN THREE YEARS. The suicide bomber war started when BARAK'S LEFTIST gov't was in power 2000-2001. It is the "PEACE PROCESS" that causes war. When the Right is in power there is much more stability and much less violence. The quietest period in the 15 years since the Oslo disaster was foisted on Israel was the 3 years of Netanyahu's "Right-wing" gov't in 1996-1999. The biggest riots of all time in the Israeli Arab sector was in 2000 when Barak was Prime Minister and the negotiations with the Palestinians where at the peak of intensity.

These are the facts.

Y. Ben-David said...

It should also be noted that the two parties most identified with the Oslo Agreement fiasco, Labor and MERETZ (the so-called "Peace Camp") who had 56 seats between them at the time they pushed it through (1993) is now getting around 17. They have completely lost the confidence of the Israeli people.

Anonymous said...

you say...will find himself in Obama's Washington and the mainstream media about as popular as Rush Limbaugh...

who cares? This left wing drivel and inability to face the fact that Israel is and will be hated no matter is funny if not so tragic!

At least with Bibi we will have a Jewish state and Meretz and others can cry about this that and the other. Right wing governments are good for the world and for Israel.
Who cares what the world thinks anyways.

The academics especially the USA variety- 3rd rate my friend- will think the sky is falling down. Well maybe we will not hear them anymore and they can peddle their books to each other.
The anti-Semitic fellow travelers will have a field day.
In time kapos one and all!

BTW Obama likes Bibi. The world likes Bibi- at least the world which counts!

EDB said...

I agree with you-- Netanyahu will have to go with the rightwing coalition. He will choose that over conceding the premiership to Livni. I predict, as you did, Likud + Shas + Lieberman + religious parties. Shas and Lieberman will come to terms somehow.

Elliot said...

I don't entirely disagree with Y. Ben-David's comments, but it should be noted that the outgoing government is not left in the purest sense. It is still Sharon's followers holding Kadima's mandates.

Speaking of Ariel Sharon, it was his campaign and appearance at the Kotel in 2000 that is popularly thought to have set off the second Intifada, despite Labor being in power at the time.

Y. Ben-David said...

Although there is some dispute about whether there was a true shift to the Right by the electorate, or whether it was more a shift from the old Zionist Left towards more a more "centrist" postion, one thing is clear....the Israeli voters overwhelmingly reject Dr Avishai's "Hebrew Republic", whose main political proponents are MERETZ and HADASH, which got a total of only 7 seats, maybe half of which came from Arab voters.

Michael Katz said...

"overwhelmingly reject" - that's putting it politely!

fiddler said...

Elliot, it wasn't Sharon's visit at the Kotel, but on Haram al-Sharif that helped spark the second intifada, hence the name "al-Aqsa Intifada".

Y. Ben-David, the centre is to the right of the left, isn't it? And the massive increase in votes for Yisrael Beitenu came from where, if not from former Likud voters?

Margaret said...


I'm not in the least interested in reading what Ben-David has to say.

Does that make me terribly shallow?

Anonymous said...

No not shallow at all. A deep thinker I would say. Somewaht like the ostrich while his head is buried.
Ignorance is bliss they say.
Yes the left won.
The Hebrew Republic implimented at last.
Sharia law for some Palestinians.
Yes you won. That does not make you shallow

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