Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Do The Math: Three Scenarios

Do the math, given these results (more or less):

1. To get the president's mandate to form the next government, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has fewer seats than Tzipi Livni, will need to lock-down a majority of Knesset members, which means a coalition of

Likud+Lieberman+Shas+various ultraOrthodox and ultraNationlist parties.  

This he can almost certainly do, and, given his victory speech, intends to, although Lieberman and Shas despise one another. And Netanyahu will find himself in Obama's Washington and the mainstream media about as popular as Rush Limbaugh.

2. For Tzipi Livni to get to a majority, she would need:

Kadima+Labor+Shas (or Lieberman)+Meretz (or Arab parties).

Shas (or Lieberman)+Meterz+Arab parties? Forget it.

3. Netanyahu or Livni or both could work toward a "national unity" government: 

Kadima+Likud+Labor (or Lieberman, or Shas).  

Netanyahu would (in one version) have to concede the prime minister's chair, as the major party with fewer seats--which he would be utterly opposed to, since he could form a rightist government of his own.  

Or Livni would (in a second version) concede the prime minister's chair and lose the chance to anchor a fighting opposition, with Labor in opposition, and Netanyahu busy alienating the world.

There is talk of a rotation agreement, as in 1984.

MY BET IS that Netanyahu will form a rightist government, take his chances with Washington, the collapse of relations with the PA, and riots among Israeli Arabs. 

Brace yourselves.  

30 comments:

Y. Ben-David said...

Dr Avishai gives us the same "doom and gloom" predictions about the Right winning that we have been hearing for decades. Almost ALL wars and violence have occurred when the LEFT is in power. The outgoing gov't is LEFT and it gave Israel TWO WARS IN THREE YEARS. The suicide bomber war started when BARAK'S LEFTIST gov't was in power 2000-2001. It is the "PEACE PROCESS" that causes war. When the Right is in power there is much more stability and much less violence. The quietest period in the 15 years since the Oslo disaster was foisted on Israel was the 3 years of Netanyahu's "Right-wing" gov't in 1996-1999. The biggest riots of all time in the Israeli Arab sector was in 2000 when Barak was Prime Minister and the negotiations with the Palestinians where at the peak of intensity.

These are the facts.

Y. Ben-David said...

It should also be noted that the two parties most identified with the Oslo Agreement fiasco, Labor and MERETZ (the so-called "Peace Camp") who had 56 seats between them at the time they pushed it through (1993) is now getting around 17. They have completely lost the confidence of the Israeli people.

Anonymous said...

you say...will find himself in Obama's Washington and the mainstream media about as popular as Rush Limbaugh...

who cares? This left wing drivel and inability to face the fact that Israel is and will be hated no matter is funny if not so tragic!

At least with Bibi we will have a Jewish state and Meretz and others can cry about this that and the other. Right wing governments are good for the world and for Israel.
Who cares what the world thinks anyways.

The academics especially the USA variety- 3rd rate my friend- will think the sky is falling down. Well maybe we will not hear them anymore and they can peddle their books to each other.
The anti-Semitic fellow travelers will have a field day.
In time kapos one and all!

BTW Obama likes Bibi. The world likes Bibi- at least the world which counts!

EDB said...

I agree with you-- Netanyahu will have to go with the rightwing coalition. He will choose that over conceding the premiership to Livni. I predict, as you did, Likud + Shas + Lieberman + religious parties. Shas and Lieberman will come to terms somehow.

Elliot said...

I don't entirely disagree with Y. Ben-David's comments, but it should be noted that the outgoing government is not left in the purest sense. It is still Sharon's followers holding Kadima's mandates.

Speaking of Ariel Sharon, it was his campaign and appearance at the Kotel in 2000 that is popularly thought to have set off the second Intifada, despite Labor being in power at the time.

Y. Ben-David said...

Although there is some dispute about whether there was a true shift to the Right by the electorate, or whether it was more a shift from the old Zionist Left towards more a more "centrist" postion, one thing is clear....the Israeli voters overwhelmingly reject Dr Avishai's "Hebrew Republic", whose main political proponents are MERETZ and HADASH, which got a total of only 7 seats, maybe half of which came from Arab voters.

Michael Katz said...

"overwhelmingly reject" - that's putting it politely!

fiddler said...

Elliot, it wasn't Sharon's visit at the Kotel, but on Haram al-Sharif that helped spark the second intifada, hence the name "al-Aqsa Intifada".

Y. Ben-David, the centre is to the right of the left, isn't it? And the massive increase in votes for Yisrael Beitenu came from where, if not from former Likud voters?

Margaret said...

Bernard:

I'm not in the least interested in reading what Ben-David has to say.

Does that make me terribly shallow?

Anonymous said...

No not shallow at all. A deep thinker I would say. Somewaht like the ostrich while his head is buried.
Ignorance is bliss they say.
Yes the left won.
The Hebrew Republic implimented at last.
Sharia law for some Palestinians.
Yes you won. That does not make you shallow

ibrahim said...

Sesli sohbet Sesli chat
Seslisohbet Seslichat
Sesli sohbet siteleri Sesli chat siteleri
Sesli Chat
Sohbet Sesli siteler
Sohbet siteleri Chat siteleri
Sohbet merkezi chat merkezi
Sesli merkezi sesli Sohbet merkezi
Sesli chat merkezi Sohbetmerkezi
Sesli Sohbet Sesli Chat
SesliSohbet Sesli chat siteleri
Sesli sohbet siteleri SesliChat
Sesli Sesli siteler
Seslimuhabbet sesli muhabbet
sesli sohbet sesli chat siteleri
sesli sohbet siteleri sesli chat
seslisohbet seslichat
seslikent sesli kent
sesli sohbet sesli sohbet siteleri
sesli chat sesli chat siteleri
seslisohbet seslichat

Ross said...

dsquareddsquared
dsquared shoesdsquared shoes
dsquared shoes 2011dsquared shoes 2011
dsquared jeans womendsquared jeans women
dsquared t shirtsdsquared t shirts
dsquared jeans mendsquared jeans men
dsquared hoodiesdsquared hoodies
dsquared beltsdsquared belts
asics shoes saleasics shoes sale
asics shoesasics shoes
asics running shoesasics running shoes
asics mexico 66asics mexico 66
onitsuka kanuchionitsuka kanuchi
timberland bootstimberland boots
christian louboutin shoeschristian louboutin shoes
karen millen dresseskaren millen dresses
nike air max plusnike air max plus
maillot de football 2011maillot de football 2011

momo440momo said...

replica watches in uk How get it right? Well, as a matter of fact, I assume Omega watches is really driven by their own "pioneer spirit" that has been the backbone of its forty-year space mission. It all goes back to the July 17, 1969 when the first man landed on the moon.

vibrams said...

The Christian Louboutin Heels can help you become sexy and elegant. christian louboutin 2011 sandals are regarded since the symbolic representation of attractive and elegant.christian louboutin wedgesIt is especially suitable for the women who wear the christian louboutin evening shoes at the first time. These christian louboutin pumps combine top quality, reasonable price and fashional design, which is your best choice Artist who promoted his collection of luxury women's footwear in earlier 90s. No 1 can disregard the existence in the style world, World-famous red-colored soles and christian louboutin peep toe are shaped features. However, you can by no means overlook the beautiful. You do not even need to go inside environment, as well as your slim, gorgeous and graceful legs may be effortlessly discovered in people's eyes.!Welcome to our christian louboutin store.

li said...

You wish for getting to create people nowadays worried about women? can you need a awesome coloring as women? We are Louboutin 2011store. we are able to provide you using a broad wide variety of Sale Louboutin. For example:Christian Louboutin Slingbacks,Christian Louboutin Peep Toe,Christian Louboutin Evenings,Christian Louboutin Pumps. andChristian Louboutin Mensis a very distinctive design, its design reflects its style. You put on it, that means you have its style.You put on it, that means you have its style.They are astonishingly psychological color. Please do not pass up an superb chance.
http://www.sale-louboutin-shoes.us

New nike soccer shoes said...

Ah good exciting content! Will always come to our attention. To bring you good news-works perfect! New nike soccer shoes best shoes 2011!!

Elite Escorts said...

Your Mademoiselle escorts agency is select the most charming, friendly and the finest London escorts for our Escort gallery and provide the best escort services in London.

Your Escort Agency said...

Your Escort Agency offers exclusive and most beautiful London escort girls of various nationalities.

London escorts said...

Bestescort4U more then ten years providing best London escorts companionship in the UK.

Nike Football Cleats said...

This Nike mercurial vapor ultra vibrant Nike mercurial vapor fg...The Nike vapor soccer shoes has a huge army of fans across the globe, Best Soccer Cleats and if you're one of them we know you love them to be bright, flashy and Nike Football Cleats in-your-face colours.

Escorts London said...

Hot - Collection is a honest and confidential London escort agency which provides genuine London escorts girls for gentlemen of taste.
London escorts

nike mercurial soccer cleats said...

Ah good exciting content! Will always come to our attention. To bring you good news-works perfect! So how is the Nike Football Cleats cleatschanged? the original Nike Speed boot!New products Nike Mercurial Vapor Superfly for us.the new Vapor football boots have undergone the same new paint work as the nike mercurial vapor superfly III and now feature the Nike Football Boots updated asymmetric.

London Escorts said...

Only Pleasures is a well established and respected London escort agency. We are pride of ourselves on having the most exquisite selection of escort girls in London for your pleasure…

credit repair said...

it seems these days politics is a factor in everything and there is no down time with all the volatility.

luck said...

uggs clearance Reputation of ugg boots is prevalent on account of their comfort and ease and fashion. In the course of the coldest of weather, uggs will preserve your foot heat and dry. The traditional ugg boots have become so broadly accepted that you will uncover several low-priced ugg boots. Be careful, Uggs Outlet many corporations have completed a knock off of these boots to generate cheat ugg boots.Verify Low cost Uggs Boots MaterialsIf you discover low-priced ugg boot's ensure you happen to be acquiring real sheepskin, and the sole of the boot is made quite similar to the Australian Ugg boots.A lot of businesses make ugg look-alike's that contains elements that aren't sheepskin ugg boots clearance.

Anonymous said...

Nice information,Escort ankara
many thanks to the author.hd film izle
It is incomprehensible to me nowgünlük kiralık ev
, but in general,Escort ankara ilan
the usefulness and significance is overwhelming.Ankara escort
Thanks again and good luck!
Antalya escort bayan
became the first designer in Wimbledon's 133-year history to create official uniforms for the tournamentescort ankara
As part of this year's event, which starts next week.
will introduces the first ...film izle
determinationEscort ankara
to maintain and enhance the values for which our two brands are famous throughout the world.Escort bayan ankara Kızılay
The rugby ralph lauren brand brings to Wimbledon the look of timeless elegance,escort bayan ankara
drawing on our rich history and traditionsEscort ankara
expert and i like your blog and the information you have
mentioned in this post about the Google tools is really great!
escort bayan
escort
escort istanbul
Bayan Escort
escort bayan ankara
taksim günlük kiralık ev
escort ankara
escort bayan ankara
escort ankara bayan
Escort Bayan Ankara
Ankara Escort,
Thanks for sharing. Very impressive

ekle paylas said...

nice blog Thanks for sharing. voicesohbet was really very nice.
sesli chat siteleri sesli sohbet
sesli sohbet siteleri sesli chat
seslichat seslisohbet
sesli siteleri chat siteleri
sohbet siteleri sesli siteler
voice sohbet sesli sohbet siteleri
sesli sohbet seslisohbet
sohbet siteleri sesli chat siteleri
seslichat sesli chat
herkesburda herkes burda
sohbetmerkezi sohbetmerkezi

London Crumpet said...

London escorts directory London Crumpet is created to expose Independent escorts and escort agencies in London. Everybody can post their advert on this directory for FREE.

London Asian Escorts said...

London Asian Escorts is an Asian and Oriental escort agency operating in Central London. The agency provides escort service for a true gentlemen. Our escort models are carefully selected and are genuine.

Unknown said...

Site's character and a great color match .. Meme estetiğiI will recommend your site to the other platforms.